"Kenia: Desastre Humanitario en Camino"

Dado el desastre que se está cocinando en Kenia en estos días, creo oportuno poner este artículo de The Economist sobre las elecciones de dicho país africano, para así poder entender mejor las circunstancias que han incubado la situación actual.

EVEN by the colourful standards of African politicians, Raila Odinga stands out. The son of Kenya's first vice-president, Oginga Odinga, Mr Odinga was educated in East Germany and spent six years in solitary confinement for his alleged involvement in a 1982 coup that failed to topple the president of the day, Daniel arap Moi. Later, Mr Odinga was rehabilitated. Enriched by his family's molasses business, he helped to defeat Mr Moi in the presidential election of 2002, this time by throwing his support behind a coalition led by Mwai Kibaki. Now he is campaigning to topple Mr Kibaki and become president himself in the election due on December 27th. And because the mirror of Kenyan politics reverses everything sooner or later, the retired Mr Moi is backing Mr Kibaki.

Mr Odinga wants to build more roads and modernise Kenya's railways. He calls the failure to add an inch of track to the railway system since independence from Britain in 1963, “a strong statement about the mediocrity with which this country has been run”. He is also keen on devolution. A recent visit to Wales convinced him that a Welsh-style assembly would work for Kenya's regions. As an ethnic Luo, Mr Odinga is proud of his friendship with Barack Obama, an American presidential candidate whose father was also Luo.

Still, Mr Odinga makes many queasy. Bankers fret about his Marxist youth. Foreign diplomats suspect him of authoritarian tendencies. For better or worse, a victory for this ebullient German-speaker would certainly upset the cosy country-club politics that have characterised Kenya since independence.

Although he is rich, he remains an outsider. Mr Kibaki, by contrast, is an insider. A minister since 1965, he has a reputation for good manners. He enjoys playing golf and reads P.G. Wodehouse novels. Despite these gentle pursuits, his health is a worry. Some say he is unable to work hard; he occasionally nods off while conducting important government business. He rejected a call by Mr Odinga for a televised presidential debate. That said, he has performed gamely on the campaign trail. He opposes devolution. He has the solid backing of the Catholic church and of Kenya's business class. Under his presidency, the country is better educated, less authoritarian, more prosperous and better connected to the world (notably China) than it has ever been.

On December 18th, in the last test of opinion before the election, Steadman, a local polling firm, put Mr Odinga at 45%, against 43% for Mr Kibaki and 10% for Kalonzo Musyoka, a former foreign minister and born-again Christian who has designs on winning a future presidential election. If those numbers hold, Mr Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement should also do well in the parliamentary elections, ahead of Mr Kibaki's umbrella Party of National Unity. A further threat to Mr Kibaki is that he may not achieve the mandatory 25% in five of the country's eight provinces, which would disqualify him. He is already known to be doing badly in Western, Coast and North-Eastern provinces, where he is having to do more campaigning than he wants.

If Mr Kibaki does lose, it will be because he has not created enough jobs. Despite an overvalued Kenyan shilling, tourism and agriculture are booming. The economy is growing at about 6% a year, a record. But Mr Kibaki has not fulfilled his dream of turning Kenya into an industrialised country.

He may also be punished for his failure to tackle egregious corruption, a central pledge from his 2002 victory. His own appointee in charge of ethics in the government, John Githongo, was bullied into exile after uncovering massive fraud within the government. Mr Githongo says that the president first ignored and then “flat-out opposed me”. Under intense pressure from donors Mr Kibaki removed two ministers accused of corruption, only to reappoint them a few months later. But there is little expectation that Mr

Odinga would do much better in this respect. Only Mr Musyoka has set a leader's example by making his assets and income public.

In many ways, the young hold the key. Mr Odinga has a massive lead among twenty-somethings. If they bother to vote, change is certain. The integrity of the voting process will be tested to breaking point. Screaming mobs, mostly of jobless young men, will surely use any irregularities to make trouble. Kenyans hope that a fiercely fought election will forge a truer democracy, not cause more bloodshed.